NEW YORK — Jerry Palm is in his 18th year tracking the NCAA tournament.
And during that time he says only one team has made the Big Dance without finishing at least four games over .500.
That was the 2001 Georgia Bulldogs.
That club made the tournament despite finishing the regular season at 16-14 because they were rated No. 1 nationally in both RPI and Sagarin ratings.
“Everybody else was at least four games over,” Palm, who owns and operates CollegeRPI.com, said Thursday night by phone.
We bring this up now because St. John’s (14-9, 6-5 Big East) now stands at five games above .500 after its latest dramatic victory, an 89-72 rout of No. 10 UConn Thursday at Madison Square Garden.
“It’s a much needed win, there’s no question about it,” Palm said of the game in which senior guard Dwight Hardy poured in a career-high 33 points. “If they don’t win this game you wonder how they have a shot.”
Palm said he had read tweets from various college basketball “experts” claiming that the UConn win automatically put St. John’s into the tournament.
“That’s just ridiculous,” Palm said.
Under first-year coach Steve Lavin, St. John’s owns victories this season over then-No. 13 Georgetown, then-No. 9 Notre Dame, then-No. 3 Duke and No. 10 UConn, all of whom are currently in the top 11.
All the wins came at the Garden. The Johnnies haven’t won on the road since Jan. 1 at Providence.
“They’re basically a home-court hero,” Palm said. “It’s like a blind pig finding an ear of corn.”
St. John’s, which last made the Big Dance in 2002, has seven regular-season games remaining.
Four of those are on the road — Cincinnati, Marquette, Villanova and Seton Hall.
The three home games include Pittsburgh, DePaul and South Florida.
“I would expect they’d be underdogs in five of these games, even at Seton Hall,” Palm said, referring to the four road games and the Pitt home contest.
“They lose all five, that’s 14 losses in the regular season and a 15th in the Big East tournament, because we’re talking about an at-large bid.”
Indeed, if St. John’s goes 2-5 in the remaining seven regular-season games, they would stand at 16-14 overall, 8-10 in the Big East.
“You’re in trouble at 16-14 entering the conference tournament,” Palm said. “I don’t know what seed you are at that point.”
Bottom line?
Even if St. John’s loses to Pitt at home, they need to find a way to go at least 3-4 in the remaining seven games.
That means winning one or two road games in addition to beating DePaul and USF at home.
“It’s nice to have good wins,” he said. “It’s nice to prove you can beat good teams. But it depends. At some point you’ve got to have a decent record.”
Palm was also asked about Rutgers’ chances of making the NIT in the wake of the Scarlet Knights’ dramatic 77-76 victory Wednesday night over No. 10 Villanova.
Rutgers is now 13-11 overall, 4-8 in the Big East.
“If they get above .500 overall they have a shot,” Palm said, referring to their end-of-year record.
“It depends. Three more NIT teams will be in the NCAA this year. That makes room for somebody.”
JessieWildcat / February 11, 2011
The Johnies are looking good.
The put a BEAT DOWN on Duke.
This is a big win.
Eventhou the West knows they are over rated.
Soft ACC conference.
And the Uconn win was real big.
So,Win 2 (including Pitt) or 3 (w/o) and they are IN.
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hoopsheaven / February 11, 2011
Mr. Palm is trying to be colorful in his comments is coming off as caustic. A realistic analysis is that St. John’s in the match up with both Duke and Connecticut, has not in previous years and did not have this year the majority of the paying crowd there to see the home team. Most of the fans were there to see and root for Duke and the same is the case for in last night’s game. Perhaps they became more of the silent majority with the big leads mid game obtained by St. John’s. It remains to be seen how St John’s will do the rest of the way and whether they will gain a bid for the NCAA tournament. But why seek to spoil a good moment for the team and some of the individual players with such a rough metaphor.
Sports is also all about memorable moments as well as final end results. Bobby Thompson’s home run was more in the collective memory of sports fans than who won the World Series in those couple of years.
Also, even teams such as Providence and Seton Hall have a chance if they make the final’s of the Big East tournament at the end of the regular season.
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mikemiller13 / February 11, 2011
jessie jessie,
coming from a pac-10 fan saying the acc is soft is very comical. the top teams out west aren’t even in the pac-10. i guess colorado and utah will put the conference over the top.
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